by Mike Mulvihill
In a report released yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that China and India will drive up worldwide energy consumption by as much as 53 percent by 2035 with a corresponding increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 43 percent.
The EIA 2011 International Energy Outlook predicts energy from renewable and alternative sources will grow the fastest reaching 15 percent of world energy use by 2035 compared to 10 percent in 2008. But fossil fuels (including oil) will still be the world’s dominant source, accounting for about 78 percent of the world’s energy use in 2035.
For electric generation, the report projects tremendous growth in coal consumption by China (up to 75 percent of the worldwide increase in coal-fired electric generation) and to a lesser extent India and other developing countries. That increased consumption will drive a projected 43 percent increase in worldwide carbon dioxide emissions between 2008 and 2035. China’s emissions alone, which were somewhat higher than the U.S. in 2008, are projected to reach levels that are “more than twice as high” as U.S. emissions by 2035.
The caveat EIA places on its report is the potential impact of worldwide policy changes. And it notes that one area particularly sensitive to policy action is competition between coal, natural gas and renewable sources to meet electricity demand.
Here in the U.S., renewable energy production will grow at a much faster rate than the EIA outlook. In fact by 2015 as many as 10 states call for 10 percent to 24 percent of all electricity sales to come from renewable resources. And by 2030, all but 17 states have requirements to reach up to 40 percent of sales from renewable resources, with California’s 33 percent goal being the most noteworthy – if not the most challenging.
Global climate impact is indeed a global issue and China is a major player that on many issues (monetary, human rights, digital access, etc.) has paid consistently little attention to its impact upon the rest of the world. Let’s hope that changes.
